With July 1st fast approaching, insider reports suggest Mitch Marner may steer away from the massive long-term contracts and opt instead for a two-year deal in the $12–13 million AAV range. According to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic, this approach would strategically position him to hit the market again when the salary cap jumps—forecast to exceed $113 million by 2027–28, enabling AAVs over $17 million for star forwards at age 28, a short-term deal would allow Marner to maximize his next contract at age 30—though it carries the risk of potential injury before reaching his peak earnings window.
Top Destinations: Vegas, Dallas, or L.A.?
LeBrun identifies the Golden Knights, Stars, and Kings as Marner’s most likely landing spots. Vegas remains a formidable option, but insiders tie heavy interest to Dallas and Los Angeles.
However, NHL insider David Pagnotta notes Los Angeles is emerging as a serious front-runner, especially following a 105-point regular season in 2024‑25 and another early playoff exit. With nearly $22 million in cap space, the Kings are poised to aggressively pursue Marner.
Patience Over Pressure
Expectations are that Marner won’t rush into any decision on July 1. TSN’s Darren Dreger emphasizes a longer evaluation period, including team visits and in-depth discussions, with a verdict likely by mid‑July, not immediately after the open of free agency.
Why a Short-Term Deal Makes Sense
Cap Forecasts Are Rising; A short deal gives Marner the flexibility to capitalize on explosive cap growth in 2027–28.
Maximizes Earning Potential; At 30, another deal could hit $17 million+ AAV if he continues performing.
Short-Term Risk Mitigation; Teams might prefer a mid-length deal to ensure both sides stay flexible in case of injury or performance decline.
Final Take
Mitch Marner is likely to pursue a two-year deal in the $12–13 million AAV range, delaying a full commitment until the cap environment becomes more favorable. With Vegas, Dallas, and Los Angeles leading the pack, he’ll take his time in free agency—potentially extending his decision-making into mid‑July. That patience could yield significant dividends down the road—for both player and team.
